Some Thoughts on Luck

This past week I made a recommendation to sell a stock that was in my portfolio basket.  It was C.H. Robinson Worldwide (ticker CHRW).  I freely admit that the sell recommendation was not to do some profit taking but as a defensive move since the MACD line had intersected in a negative way and the stock was only going sideways so you should get out without getting hurt.  However, as fate would have it, the stock jumped 10% overnight.  It closed July 31 at 89.05 and opened August 1 at 98.86.  I recommended a BUY on July 23 at the open which was 89.04.  My BUY/SELL recommendations showed an 11.14% gain in one week.  I hear the naysayers all yelling in unison, “You Got LUCKY”.  Really?  Do they say I was unlucky when the opposite happens?  No.  They’ll say my recommendations are flawed or my strategies simply don’t work.  So, I am lucky if I make a big gain, but incompetent if I lose?  The road to fairness is paved both ways.  If luck does exist, then so does bad luck.

I don’t believe in luck.  There are a number of cliches that I am sure you have heard.  “I make my own luck”, or, “The harder I try, the luckier I get”, but my favourite is this one, “Winners will credit their good luck when luck had nothing to do with it.  Losers blame their bad luck.  Again, luck had nothing to do with it.”    I believe wholeheartedly in all of those sayings but more importantly I believe in taking action using proven methods for financial gain.

The harsh reality is that there will be deviations from the norm, both positive and negative.  It’s unfortunate but people will use subjective, unscientific analysis to bring someone down or to provide excuses for their own purposes.  I prefer to let the facts speak for themselves.  I recommended a BUY on CHRW July 23 and a SELL on August 1.  The net result, an 11.14% gain.  Now a reality check.  This is not the norm.  That too is also a fact, but we’ll enjoy the ride on this one.

Cheers,

Al

Source: https://twopercentgoal.com/some-thoughts-on-luck/

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